The inflation rate has surpassed a 40-year record and will peak in 2022. The Fed’s efforts to raise interest rates above 4% have corrected the CPI to 6.42%. However, inflation is still very high and out of control. A negative yield curve below zero also indicates a possible recession in 2023.
During a recession, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be affected by a variety of factors, such as changes in investor sentiment, government regulations, and general market conditions. In some cases, the price of bitcoin may drop as investors flock to traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold or government bonds. Although in other cases the price of bitcoin may rise as investors see it as a hedge against inflation or a way to store value outside of traditional financial systems. In general, the relationship between Bitcoin and recessions is complex and can vary depending on the specific circumstances.
As the USD has already reached a strong technical target on the long-term chart and is expected to decline, Bitcoin is expected to go up. Since Bitcoin is not owned by the government, there is no direct correlation between it and inflation. However, the relative currency bitcoin is affected by the strength or weakness of the relative currency.
Bitcoin technical picture
The chart below shows the monthly market levels of bitcoin, which indicate volatile price action. The chart shows a double top that was broken at $28,000, and once the neck is broken, the price reaches $17,000, also known as a strong support.
Bitcoin is currently bouncing back from the strong support area, immediate resistance at $28,000. Any break above $28,000 will signal a breakout and lead to a search for higher prices. However, a break from $17,000 indicates a strong breakdown, and one should expect a drop to $13,500 and $3,500.
Investors have noticed significant gains, and now a price reversal may follow.
The coin is trading at $23,200 at the time of publication, the leading bitcoin [BTC]It is currently trading at levels last seen in August 2022. To date, the BTC price is up 40%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Sharing a statistically significant positive correlation with many other assets in the market, the growth in the BTC price has led to an increase in the value of many other crypto assets over the past month.
According to CoinGecko data, the global cryptocurrency market cap has increased by 21% in the past month.
What is the value of 1,10,100 BTC today?
Owners win, but for how long?
BTC’s rally to a five-month high in the past month has seen many of its owners post profits on their BTC holdings. The cost basis assessment for short and long term owners revealed this.
The cost basis for all BTC holders is the average purchase price of the BTC they hold. This takes into account any differences in the BTC price at the time of purchase. This cost basis determines your capital gain or loss when selling bitcoin.
According to Twitter Analysts Will KleimanThe cost basis for short- and long-term BTC holders was $18,900 and $22,300, respectively.
But with BTC’s price rising beyond those points, these investor groups are “no longer underwater,” Clemente said.
Bitcoin has now recovered its long-term bearer cost base ($22.3K) as well as its short-term bearer cost base ($18.9K) and total cost base. The behavior changes because the moraine bearers are no longer underwater.
Furthermore, CryptoQuant Analysts Fi Deltalytics It evaluated the short-term BTC spending-output-profit ratio (SOPR) and found that “sentiment from participants in the short-term Bitcoin chain has reached the most greedy level since January 2021.” According to the analyst, the SOPR is set well above the bullish threshold of one, which indicates an overextended market.
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Deltalytics further noted that the upside could be short-lived without an increase in stablecoin reserves on spot exchanges.
A look at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirmed the analyst’s position. At the time of publication, the indicator shows that greed has pervaded the cryptocurrency markets.
When the indicator is in the “greedy range,” it means that investors are becoming increasingly confident and optimistic about the market and may be more willing to take risks.
This also indicates that prices have become overvalued and a market correction may be imminent.
An evaluation of BTC’s movement on the daily chart confirmed the possibility of a price correction. Since January 21st, the King coin has been trading in a narrow range.
When the BTC price is fluctuating within a narrow range, it means that the price is not making large movements in any direction and is staying within a relatively narrow range.
Analysis of BTC’s Chaikin Money Flow Index (MFI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) raised more concerns as these technical indicators have been trending lower since January 21st.
BTC’s narrow price range along with bearish trends in MFI and CMF indicate a lack of buying momentum and the potential for increasing selling pressure.
This also showed that the market is likely to collapse from the narrow range to the downside.
A look at how the upcoming FOMC meeting will affect Shiba Inu demand.
An upward slope is forming but investors are still treading cautiously awaiting final results.
The Shiba Inu community is undeniably pleased with SHIB’s performance in January. However, as the month drew to a close, a sense of uncertainty returned to the market, especially regarding February’s results.
The upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to have the biggest impact on the portfolios of Shiba Inu holders.
A good understanding of what the FOMC meeting is like will enable Shiba Inu holders to better understand how it affects their portfolio.
Well, for starters, the meetings happen once every three weeks, and one of the highlights is the review of the federal funds rate. The latter is the rate at which banks borrow from the Federal Reserve.
The link between FOMC and Shiba Inu price action
The Federal Reserve uses the federal funds rate as a tool to balance the economy. A lower interest rate means that it is cheaper to borrow, making it easier for people to access liquidity and thus a simpler investment environment.
On the other hand, a high rate of interest makes borrowing less attractive and discourages investment.
The federal funds rate has mostly increased through 2022 as part of the Fed’s quantitative easing measures to curb inflation.
The Shiba Inu and the rest of the market saw a bull run after the latest FOMC meeting. This is because the Fed raised rates by 0.5%, or 50 basis points, compared to 0.75%, or 75 basis points, in the previous month’s announcement.
The market interpreted the FFR drop as a sign that the Fed was easing its sharp rate hike. This was also accompanied by reports that the Fed was seeing positive results in its fight against inflation. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for January 31 and February 1.
How will the upcoming FOMC FFR affect the Shiba Inu?
There is speculation that the Fed will raise the FFR by 25 basis points. If this turns out to be true, it could support the upside, and thus SHIB could face renewed buying pressure.
Such an outcome would allow it to overcome the resistance that we noticed in the past few days at the $0.0000123 price level.
If a rally results, Shiba Inu investors can expect a price rally of up to 14% to the next Fibonacci resistance line.
If the price hike is higher than that, it could fool investors and lead to another Shiba Inu sell-off.
A pullback of 10% or more could be on the cards and that outcome would push it back near or below the 200-day moving average.
The previous week
Wednesday: US Open Market Committee [25bps hike priced with 98% probability, another 25bps in March is likely]
Thursday: British and European Central Bank meetings
Friday: labor market data from the US NFP [Unemployment rate to tick higher from 3.5% to 3.6%, 193k jobs exp. to have been added]
Sometimes, the market starts to respond even before the actual FOMC meeting minutes are released. Some speculate that this is because people in privileged positions know about the Fed’s interest rate decision before it is officially issued.
As such, some market participants may have privileged access, allowing them to react accordingly.
Interestingly, the Shiba Inu’s Weighted Sentiment Scale has registered a slight uptick in the past two days. This may indicate a return of optimism to the market.
Well, that’s not necessarily confirmation that investors are expecting another increase, especially now that expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point increase.
At the same time, price volatility has decreased somewhat in recent days, but another rally may be on the way. This is because the FOMC data could lead to more trading activity this week.
Exchange flows also show a similar result. The supply on the stock exchange has decreased significantly in recent days, while the opposite is true for the supply outside the stock exchange.
The above metrics confirm that there is more demand for SHIB than selling pressure. However, this is not an assurance that the bulls will prevail.
There is still plenty of time for a bearish pivot shift, especially if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates higher than expected.
Once the official information is released, we will likely see an increase in trend momentum. SHIB traders and investors can take advantage of the subsequent trend which will provide opportunities for short-term profits.
But for now, the best strategy is to “wait and watch” the market’s performance.
Although BTC failed to conquer $23,500 again in the past 24 hours, BTC is still somewhat in the green today, standing above $23,000.
Altcoins are getting pretty quiet today, with only Litecoin emerging as a clear winner.
Bitcoin business over $23k
The start of this past weekend saw Bitcoin price surge from $21,000 to $23,000 and above. Somewhat predictably, reaching the latter meant taking advantage of a multi-month high as BTC had been stuck around $17,000 for months.
The cryptocurrency spent most of the week in the $22,000-$23,000 range, apart from a couple of brief price pumps. Most notably, it took the asset to $23,800, which became a new high price point since September.
But each attempt was quickly captured by the bears, not allowing a new local rally. Then came the US GDP and PCE figures, but they didn’t provide much volatility.
As such, BTC entered the weekend just below $23,000, it surged to $23,300 (on Bitstamp), and although it has pulled back somewhat since then, it is still trading north of $23,000 so far.
Its market capitalization has jumped to just over $445 billion, while its dominance in rates is 42.3%.
LTC increased by 7.5%
Litecoin is emerging as the most impressive performer of the major altcoins today. It is up more than 7% and is trading near $100, its highest price since May 6th.
LEO and APT are the other two major green caps today. Both are up about 3% and are trading at $3.7 and $18, respectively.
Ethereum, Binance Coin, Ripple, Cardano, Polygon and OKB are quieter today, with gains of up to 1%.
With the rest of the market trading with little to no volatility now, it is fairly normal for the cumulative market capitalization of all crypto assets to quietly be just over $1.050 trillion.
LAST WEEKEND WATCH: Litecoin surged 7.5% to an 8-month high, and Bitcoin appeared above $23K for the first time on CryptoPotato.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other types of advice and is the opinion of the author only
Two obstacles impede the pathway of FIL to pre-FTX levels.
FIL development activity decreased, but the funding ratio remained positive.
filecoin [FIL] The January rally provided investors with gains of more than 90% after rising from $2,992 to a high of $5,788. But it was still two hurdles from the pre-FTX level of $6,348. At the time of publication, the FIL value is $5,288, blinking red for bitcoin [BTC] Lost control of the $23,000 area.
Read filecoin [FIL] predict the price 2023-24
Selling Pressure and the $6,016 Barrier: Can Bulls Remove Them?
Source: FILE / USDT on TradingView
FIL went into an extended price consolidation between mid-November and mid-December 2022 after a huge drop in the wake of the FTX saga.
It fell from $6,554 to $2,433, losing more than 60% of its value. But the $2,906 support level was solid enough for the bulls to start recovering from it.
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FIL’s upward momentum in January saw investors recover most of the losses after the FTX saga. However, the short-term selling pressure area ($5,679-$5,790) and the $6,016 barrier prevented a full recovery to the pre-FTX level of $6,348.
FIL can overcome these two hurdles if BTC recovers and rises above the $23.5K region.
However, a break below $5,182 and the rising trend line would invalidate the bullish bias described above. This decline could end at the $4983 support.
FIL development activity decreased, but demand remained stable
According to Santiment, FIL development activity has gradually declined and has affected investors’ view of the asset, as evidenced by the decline in positive weighted sentiment. A prolonged decline could undermine the momentum needed to overcome two hurdles.
However, the FIL funding rate remained positive, indicating a fundamentally bullish view of the asset. Additional demand for FIL in the derivatives market could reinforce the upside and cause a price reversal.
In addition, there was an increase in FIL volume after a sharp decline. But the rally has yet to reinforce the buying pressure at the time of publication. Therefore, investors should track the performance of Bitcoin, especially at the levels of $23.5K and $22.5K.
ETHUSD It has entered the consolidation phase since the end of December. The price has consolidated more than 40% since breaching the strong resistance, which is a very important move in the past few months, which many have been waiting for and looking for a bottom for the cryptocurrency.
At the moment, the coin is within a fairly strong range at 880 (Support) 2020 (Resistance). The classic price behavior is range bound from the upper boundary to the lower boundary and vice versa, but since we have a local uptrend at the moment, any nearby support levels can play a historic role in a new high. Strong support levels: 1490, 1356
what to watch out for – wedge . The price tested the expected boundary of the pattern. A consolidation is formed with momentum for a pullback (a technical pullback to gain energy before a further move). An important nuance of this movement is that the price does not go down much, in which case the market mood will change a lot. The redemption condition can be thought of as crossing the signal line RSI As well as the exit of the indicator from the oversold area.
The main trading range 1662-1356 is currently playing a major role, as the price has clearly narrowed the boundaries of its nearest location. After a fairly strong 40% rally, the price needs to gather strength for further movement in one direction or another.
In the medium term, it is reasonable to expect growth under the following conditions: Sentiment indicators have begun (for the first time in months) to indicate the greed of the masses – China has started taxing cryptocurrency but still doesn’t get to know it in advance, I think it can be taken as a good sign CryptoQuant isn’t ruling it out BTC New single entry rising Stage. Also, nobody sells at these levels as often as they like, only if it becomes a forced sale – Altcoins have an increase in large transactions – bitcoin act stronger than SP500 index
Aptos recently wrapped up its event in New York City in partnership with KYD Labs.
Chain metrics supported the massive price increase but the indicators were bearish.
fit [APT] The crypto industry has surprised in recent days by recording huge price gains. to meCoinMarketCapThe price of APT is up nearly 40% in the past seven days and at the time of writing it is trading at $17.63 with a market capitalization of over $2.8 billion.
While APT has continued to grow, Aptos recently organized an event in collaboration with KYD Labs. As part of the collaboration, Aptos and KYD Labs are creating the future of fan loyalty through tickets to live events.
Realistic or not, here it isAPT market cap in bitcoin reformers
Also, there was better news for investors – LunarCrush data indicated that the pump could continue in the coming days. In fact, fit It was on the list of cryptocurrencies with the highest score for the Galaxy, which is a hugely bullish sign.
a look at inclinedOn-chain stats gave a bullish signal, with most of them supporting a continued increase. APT development activity has increased over the past week, reflecting developers’ efforts to improve the network.
Positive sentiment around APT also increased, reflecting investor confidence in the token. Moreover, the popularity of APT has seen an exponential growth as its social volume has been skyrocketing.
with you 1 10100 APT Today’s worth
But these can be annoying
While the major metrics in the series looked bullish, inclinedThe daily chart revealed some indications to the contrary. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was in the overbought area and was declining.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) was also hovering near the overbought region, which looked worrisome. On the other hand, Chaikin money flow from APT has been declining and has been heading towards the neutral mark, which indicates that the price rally may end soon. However, the MACD was still in favor of the bulls.
However, it was quite clear that the bullish rally could continue for a while before bears halt demand for APT.
Saturday was bearish, with Bitcoin dropping 0.16% to end the day at $23,029.
Increased scrutiny of the cryptocurrency market has tested buyer appetite while contagion risks and sentiment towards the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have eased.
Despite the bearish session, the Fear and Greed Index returned to the greed zone, rising from 52/100 to 55/100.
On Saturday, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 0.16%. BTC partially reversed its 0.27% gain from Friday, ending the day at $23,029. BTC ended the day at $23,000 for the fourth consecutive session.
A bullish start to the day saw BTC climb to an early high of $23,181. And when BTC broke below the first major resistance level (R1) at $23,524, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $22,876. However, avoiding the first major support level (S1) at $22,571, BTC rebounded to $23,000 to limit losses for the day.
Increased scrutiny of the cryptocurrency market is being weighed against the risk of reduced contagion risk
There were no external forces in the market to guide investors on Saturday. However, the White House administration’s cryptocurrency roadmap and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler tested investor appetite.
The roadmap follows Thursday’s release of a 116-page list of FTX creditors that included US-listed companies and financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs (GS).
Significantly, the administration called on regulators to manage financial institutions’ exposure to cryptocurrency, saying:
“We encourage regulators to continue these efforts, including those designed to manage and reduce financial institutions’ exposure to digital asset risks.”
The latest roadmap will add to regulatory uncertainty as crypto platforms try to regain investor confidence in the wake of the FTX and Genesis bankruptcies. But while regulatory risks remain a headwind, the shift in sentiment toward the Fed’s monetary policy and mitigation of FTX and Genesis infection risks remain a tailwind.
Today, investors should watch for updates from FTX and Genesis’ bankruptcy proceedings and potential additional regulatory chatter.
In the last hour, the NASDAQ mini is likely to weigh in as investors turn their attention to the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The stakes are a 25 basis point rate hike and a softer rate path to bring inflation to the target.
Nasdaq – BTCUSD 290123 hourly chart
The fear and greed index returns to the greed zone
Today the BTC Fear & Greed Index rose from 52/100 to 55/100. Despite BTC’s bearish session, the index is back in greed territory for the second time in three days.
While increased regulatory scrutiny weighed on investor sentiment, BTC ended the day at $23,000, indicating investor resilience. Market sentiment against Fed monetary policy, FTX and Genesis likely to provide support. The recent move supports BTC’s near-term return to $25,000.
However, the indicator should avoid returning to neutral territory (54/100) to support BTC’s run at $25,000. A drop into the fear zone would signal a bullish trend reversal in the short term.
Fear and greed 290123
Bitcoin (BTC) price movement
At the time of writing, BTC is up 0.63% at $23,173, and a bullish start to the day saw BTC climb to an early peak of $23,523 before retreating. BTC briefly broke the first major resistance level (R1) at $23,181 and the second major resistance level (R2) at $23,334.
BTCUSD daily chart 290123
BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $23,029 pivot to support another breakout from the first major resistance level (R1) at $23,181 to retarget the second major resistance level (R2) at $23,334 and the early rally at $23,523.
A return to the morning high of $23,523 would support the breakout session. However, crypto news clients must be market-friendly to make the breakthrough.
In case of another extended rally, BTC is likely to test the third major resistance level (R3) at $23,639 and the resistance at $24,000.
A fall through the pivot would put the first major support level (S1) at $22,876. However, barring a large-scale crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid below $22,500, and the second major support level (S2) at $22,724 should define the downside. The third major support level (S3) is at $22,419.
BTCUSD 290123 hourly chart
Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish sign. Bitcoin sat above the 50-day moving average, currently at $22,603, the 50-day moving average has moved away from the 200-day moving average, with the 100-day moving average widening from the 200-day moving average, giving bullish signals.
Waiting above key support levels and the 50-day EMA ($22,603) would support a breakout from R1 ($23,181) to retarget at R2 ($23,334) and the morning high at $23,523. However, a drop through S1 ($22,876) would give the bears a run at S2 ($22,724) and the 50-day EMA ($22,603).
A dip through the 50 day EMA could send a bearish signal.
BTCUSD 290123 4-hour chart
BTC Fear & Greed Indicator Points BTC Running At $25,000 – Coinphony [SV]
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other types of advice and is the opinion of the author only
AXS has shown a 30% gain in the past week.
It also noted the huge demand despite increasing sales pressure.
Acce Infinity [AXS] He scores great performances every week. It showed a 30% increase in the last week alone. But its sustained rally has seen it reach a key October high of $13 which could prove significant resistance to the bullish momentum of AXS.
Read Acce Infinity [AXS] predict the price 2023-24
At press time, AXS was trading at $11.83 after experiencing a bearish order block price rejection at $11.98. GameFi coin could swing between $10.87 and $12 in the short term before attempting a retest of the October high.
October High at $13: Can Bulls Rally Around It?
Source: AXS/USDT on TradingView
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AXS reached $13.94 after Bitcoin [BTC] up to $23,5000. The move above saw the AXS break above the October high of $13. However, a price correction followed after that, forcing AXS to retest the $10.87 support level.
AXS may test $13 again in the next few days, but the bulls need to clear the $11.98 barrier. Additionally, a BTC rally above $23.5K could see AXS overcome the $11.98 and $13 hurdles.
However, a break below the $10.87 support will invalidate the bias above. However, the downside could be contained by the 26-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or the support at $10.02.
However, an extreme downtrend may be highly unlikely as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been bullish and Volume (OBV) has posted higher lows, indicating genuine demand.
The AXS has been in great demand despite increasing sales pressure
AXS has seen more demand in the derivatives market, as evidenced by Binance’s increased funding rate and subsequent shift to the positive side. Increased demand could support AXS prices.
However, the exchange flow balance was positive, indicating short-term distribution as more AXS moved to the exchanges as short-term holders attempted to sell their holdings at a profit. The short-term selling pressure could make it difficult to break through the barriers at $11.98 and $13.
In addition to the short-term selling pressure, AXS volumes also decreased slightly, as evidenced by the daily active headlines. This may delay a strong bullish momentum in the short term, but an improvement can be registered if BTC reclaims the $23.5K level.