the main ideas:
- On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.76% to end the day at $2,307.
- Bitcoin broke away from the Nasdaq 100 index, which has seen red throughout the session on Monday.
- The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 24/100 to 27/100, supporting the index’s move outside the area of intense fear.
On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.76%. Reversing the 2.36% drop from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $2,307.
The bearish start to the Monday session saw BTC drop to $19557 before making a move. While avoiding the first major support level (S1) at $1,9351, bitcoin surged to an afternoon high at $20,415.
BTC has breached the first major resistance level (R1) at $19,980. However, with Bitcoin rising against the second major resistance level (R2) at $20,389, BTC retreated once again to end the day below $20,307.
The quiet US economic calendar and lack of talk from FOMC members allowed lower buyers to provide much needed support. Market sentiment against the consolidation of Ethereum (ETH) and other crypto news has drawn investors away from the sidelines.
Notably, Bitcoin’s recovery to $20,000 came despite the Nasdaq 100’s 1.02% drop. But US economic indicators will test the sentiment of cryptocurrency investors later today. US JOLT job openings and consumer confidence figures are announced. Positive numbers will support the Fed’s current monetary policy mantra.
The NASDAQ 100 Mini is up 25.5 points this morning.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed indicator leaves the area of intense fear
The Fear and Greed Index rose today from 24/100 to 27/100. After succumbing to market forces on Monday, with a fall into the area of intense fear. BTC rebounded to $20,000 to provide support.
To avoid the August low of $19,540, BTC bounced back to the end of Monday’s session at $2,307, supporting a modest improvement in investor sentiment.
However, the fear and greed index is still on the edge of the intense fear zone. Failure to return to 30/100 leaves the area of intense fear and more bearish moves for Bitcoin on the table.
For the bulls, the index needs a move through 40/100 to support BTC’s return to $25,000, however, a fall into the Extreme Fear zone leaves BTC’s visit to the 2022 low of $17,605 in play.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC is down 0.33% at $20,240.
BTC needs to avoid the $20,093 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,629. BTC needs to avoid below $20,000 to support the breakout from Monday’s high of $20,415.
An extended crypto rally will see BTC test the second major resistance (R2) at $20951 and the $21,000 resistance. The third major resistance level (R3) is at $21,809.
A fall through the pivot would trigger the first major support level (S1) at $19,771. Excluding an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid below $19,000, and the second major support level at $19235 should be the limit to the downside.
The third major support level (S3) is at $18377.
Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, Bitcoin is below its 50-day moving average, currently at $20,818.
The 100-day moving average has pulled back from the 200-day moving average, while the 50-day moving average has pulled back from the 200-day moving average, giving bearish price signals.
An additional pullback from the 50-day moving average from the 200-day moving average would put key support levels into play.
For the bulls, a move of BTC through R1 ($20,629) will bring in the 50-day EMA ($20,818) and R2 ($20,951).
Looking at the trends, BTC will need to move through the August highs at $2,5203 and $25,500 to target the June highs at $31956. Avoiding Sunday’s low at $19,540 will support a pullback towards the 50-day EMA to ease selling pressure.
As for the bears, the August low of $19,540 on Sunday continued the trend of the new lows, with the June 18 low of $17,601 remaining the target. A drop to the July low of $18,768 would trigger the June and 2022 lows.