the main ideas:
- It was a bearish start to the week, as Bitcoin (BTC) today finished below $20,000 for the third time in four sessions.
- Risk aversion in European stock markets has weighed on investor sentiment, leaving flailing buyers on the sidelines.
- Bitcoin Fear & Greed fell from 23/100 to 22/100, the signal remains bearish.
On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.07%. BTC reversed a 0.85% gain from Sunday to end the day at $19789, while revisiting $20,000, BTC finished below $20,000 for the third time in four sessions.
A mixed morning saw BTC surge to an early peak at $20,060 before pulling back. BTC failed to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,165, and BTC fell to $19,636 in the morning. BTC fell through the first major support level (S1) at $19,715. After finding support in the early afternoon, BTC tested the resistance at $20,000 with an afternoon high at $19,965 before pulling back.
There were no crypto events to provide guidance, leaving bitcoin in the hands of the Nasdaq 100 mini and European stock markets.
The bearish sentiment, resulting from weak economic statistics from the Eurozone, weighed on riskier assets. With US markets closed, there was little movement in the Nasdaq 100 Mini to change sentiment.
On Monday, the DAX was down 2.22%. However, the NASDAQ 100 Mini is up 115.5 points this morning, supporting BTC and the broader crypto market.
Later today, US economic indicators will affect the Nasdaq 100 Index and the cryptocurrency market. The most important ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is the main statistic today. Better-than-expected activity in the services sector could fuel Fed fears and test appetite for riskier assets.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index Correlate to Bitcoin Bearish Session
The Fear and Greed Index dropped today from 23/100 to 22/100. The bearish BTC session left the index in the area of intense fear for the seventh consecutive session. While falling into the red, the index avoided below 20/100, limiting the impact on Bitcoin.
However, the index remains within the area of intense fear, leaving the lowest level for BTC currently at $17,605.
For the bulls, the index needs to move through 40/100 to support BTC’s return to $25,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC is up 1.72% at $20,130 and a bullish start to the day has seen BTC climb from the low of $19,784 to the high of $20,183.
BTC broke the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,021.
BTC needs to avoid R1 and the $19,828 pivot to target the second major resistance level (R2) at $20,252 and the $20,500 resistance. The bullish morning session will support the breakout from the morning high at 20183 dollars.
An extended crypto rally will see BTC test the third major resistance level (R3) at $20,676. However, barring a rise in risk in response to US economic indicators and any bearish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, BTC is likely to rise below $21,000.
A fall through R1 and the pivot would place the first major support level (S1) at $5,660. Excluding an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid below $19,000, and the second major support level (S2) at $19,404 should be the limit to the downside.
The third major support level (S3) is $18,980
Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, Bitcoin is above its 50-day moving average, currently at $20,086.
The 100-day moving average has pulled back from the 200-day moving average, while the 50-day moving average has pulled back from the 200-day moving average, giving bearish price signals.
A drop through the 50 day EMA will trigger key support levels.
As for the bulls, BTC moving through R2 ($20,252) and $20,500 will give the bulls a run at the 100-day moving average ($20,631) and R3 ($20,676). The 200-day exponential moving average is at $21,369.
Looking at the trends, BTC will need to move through the August highs at $2,5203 and $25,500 to target the June highs at $31956. An avoidance of the August low at $19,540 would support a pullback towards the 50-day EMA to ease selling pressure.
For the bears, a dip through the August low would put the July low of $18,768 and the June 18 low of $17,601 into play.