the main ideas:
- It’s a bearish week, as the total cryptocurrency market cap fell $88.1 billion to $937.6 billion.
- Two events sent the cryptocurrency market into the deep red, the US CPI report and the Ethereum consolidation.
- Technical indicators have turned bearish, as the cryptocurrency market needs to move in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
This week, the total cryptocurrency market cap fell by $88.1 billion (8.59%) to $937.6 billion.
On Tuesday, the total cryptocurrency market cap fell by $78.9 billion in response to the US CPI report. Better-than-expected US inflation numbers fueled speculation about a percentage increase in interest rates.
On Thursday, another $39.2 billion left the door as investors responded to the Ethereum Merge. Buying rumors and selling news became a cautionary tale before Vasil’s hard fork.
However, disappointing US economic indicators on Thursday gave the cryptocurrency market a much-needed buffer. Weak retail sales and federal manufacturing numbers in Philadelphia reduced bets for a percentage point increase.
Currently, the split between the 75 basis point rate hike and the percentage point rate is 82% to 18% in favor of a 75 basis point increase. Before Thursday’s retail sales and Philadelphia Fed numbers, the split was 75% to 25% in favor of a 75% rate hike.
While the Ethereum consolidation has led to a partial decoupling of the cryptocurrency from the Nasdaq, the impact of the Federal Reserve should see a closer correlation in the coming week.
For the current week, from Monday to Sunday, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) lead the way to the downside, with losses of 17.7% and 12.2%, respectively. Polkadot (DOT) and Cardano (ADA) are down 9.1% and 5.5%, respectively.
Cardano Ada
For the current week, from Monday to Sunday, the ADA is down 5.5% to $0.482. A mixed start to the week saw the ADA climb to Monday’s high of $0.520 before dropping to Friday’s low of $0.455.
Despite the reversal, ADA maintained its August low of $0.424. Friday’s rebound and bullish Saturday capped losses ahead of Vasil’s hard fork.
As of September 16, updates to the ADA Hard Fork block indicators have been positive for ADA price:
- Twenty-five gears are ready for the hard fork.
- There are 21 exchanges underway, and Coinbase and Kraken are still reporting ongoing upgrades.
- 23 The upgrade process has not yet started.
Among the 12 largest exchanges by liquidity:
- Seven exchanges are ready for the hard decoupling: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit and WhiteBit, with four platforms underway, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC and XT.com.
- However, there is one exchange that has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.
Based on the trend analysis, ADA will need to break above the August high at $0.595 to break the June high at $0.6688 and target the May high at $0.906. A return to $0.50 at the start of the week would be key. However, a dip through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.
Vasil Hard Fork updates should continue to provide guidance as investors look to the 12 remaining ADA liquidity exchanges to finalize the upgrade process. The main event is on Thursday. Following the market reaction to the Ethereum merger, we expect price volatility to rise ahead of the event.
Looking at the exponential moving average, based on the 4 hour report, this was a bullish sign.
ADA was above the 100-day moving average, currently at $0.482. The 100-day moving average has fallen to the 200-day moving average, as the 50-day moving average has converged with the 100-day moving average to provide positive price signals.
A bullish crossover between the 50-day moving average and the 100-day moving average should support the rally at the August high ($0.595). However, a decline across the 100-day ($0.482) and 50-day ($0.481) moving average is likely to test the $0.45 support. Barring a crypto crash, the ADA should avoid the August dip at $0.425.
DOTS
From Monday to Sunday, the DOT fell 9.1% to $7.00. Tracking the broader market, DOT rose to Monday’s high of $8.05 before dropping to a new September low of $6.71. However, Saturday’s bullish support back to $7.00.
The bearish week saw the DOT rise to the 10th place against Dogecoin (DOGE), which became the second largest Proof of Work coin after the Ethereum merger. Network news updates eased as investors reacted to US inflation figures and Ethereum consolidation.
Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high at $9.68 will support a run to $10.00 and the June high at $10.73. From $10.73, DOT will have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.
However, the DOT needs to avoid the September low of $6.71 to prevent a continuation of the return to the 2022 low of $5.99. While the impact of network updates will continue, the trend from the broader market will remain the main driver.
Looking at the exponential moving average, based on the 4 hour report, the signal was bearish.
DOT is sitting below the 50-day moving average, currently at $7.19. The 100-day moving average has pulled back from the 200-day moving average, with the 50-day moving average pulled back from the 100-day moving average. The indicators gave negative signals for the price.
DOT will need a breakout of the 50-day EMA ($7.19) and 100-day EMA ($7.30) to support the upward move. However, a failure to break above the 50-day EMA would give the bears a boost at the September lows of $6.71 and $6.50.
Ethereum (ETH)
From Monday to Sunday, ETH fell 17.7% to $1,454. Lower over the course of the week, ETH fell from Monday’s high of $1,784 to Friday’s low of $1,404 in September. After finding modest support on Saturday, ETH avoided a bounce below $1,400.
Market reaction to the US CPI report and the merger left ETH deep in the red. ETH is down 8.3% on Tuesday and 10.2% on Thursday. Thursday’s sale came despite a smooth transition to the Proof of Stake protocol.
Looking at the trends, a return of ETH to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high at $2,031 and a pullback to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls will target the May highs of $2,968 and $3000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.
A drop through the September low of $1,404 would give the bears a boost to $880 in June and this year.
Looking at the exponential moving average, based on the 4 hour report, this was a bearish signal. ETH has been below the 50-day moving average, currently at $1,556, and the 50-day moving average has pulled out of the 100-day moving average, with the 100-day moving average easing from the 200-day moving average. ETH price signals were negative.
ETH’s move across the 50-day EMA could signal a change in sentiment and support a return to $1600. However, ETH will need to break the resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,591).
A failure to break above the 50-day moving average will result in a September low and below $1,400.
Solana (SOL)
From Monday to Sunday, SOL was down 12.2% to $33.71. A bullish start to the week saw SOL reach a Tuesday high of $39.00 before dropping to a Friday low of $31.50.
The NFT update introduced SOL support before responding to the US CPI and Ethereum Merge report. according to Solana NewsThe most traded NFT groups in the past 24 hours include Yoots-Mint Toobs ($426,170), Solana Name Service ($425,491) and Psyker ($273,773).
hi mon too subscriber Some Solana-based NFT numbers, which were SOL-positive.
However, the positive news failed to reduce the impact of the US CPI report and the merger.
Looking at the trends, a move through the August high at $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high at $95.19. SOL will need a lot of support to break $75.
But a drop through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the current year low of $25.78 in sight.
Looking at the exponential moving average, based on the 4 hour report, this was a bearish signal. SOL is sitting above the 50-day EMA, currently at $33,689.
After a bearish crossover on Friday, the 50-day moving average pulled back from the 100-day moving average, with the 100-day moving average pulling back from the 200-day moving average. Both were negative price.
A break of SOL from the 100-day moving average ($33,833) would support a move across the 200-day moving average ($34,806) to make the August high ($48.42) visible. However, a failure to break out of the 50-day EMA ($33,689) would see below $30 and the August low ($29,9150).
Weekly Review of ADA, DOT, ETH and SOL – ETH Stumbles – Coinphony [SV]