BTC Fear & Greed Indicator Targets Fear Zone Despite Bitcoin Fall

the main ideas:

  • On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) ended a small two-day winning streak, dropping 1.13% to $19,334.
  • Better-than-expected US economic indicators left Bitcoin in the red, while positive corporate earnings supported another bullish session for the Nasdaq 100.
  • The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 22/100 to 23/100, reflecting the resilience of investors.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.13%. Partially reversing the 1.49% gains from Monday, BTC ended the day at $19,334, and in particular, BTC fell below $20,000 for the 11th consecutive session while avoiding a return below $19,000 for the third.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC surge to a mid-morning high of $19,709. And when BTC broke away from the first major resistance (R1) at $19,770, BTC fell to a late low at $19,100. BTC fell through the first major support level (S1) at $19,252 before a partial recovery to end the day at $19,334.

US economic indicators have affected Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Industrial production rose 0.4% in September, reversing a 0.1% decline from August. Economists expect an increase of 0.1 percent. After the initial rally when the numbers were released, the market reaction was evident in the chart below.

US corporate earnings failed to support the recovery, despite better-than-expected results from Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Lockheed Martin (LMT).

While it failed to provide support to the cryptocurrency market, positive earnings and upbeat US stats provided another bullish session for the Nasdaq 100. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose 0.90%.

Today, US economic indicators should have a slight impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the cryptocurrency market. The Federal Reserve housing sector numbers should leave the focus. This morning the NASDAQ mini index rose 152 points.

Nasdaq – BTCUSD 191022 5-minute chart

Fear & Greed Index Rises Again Despite BTC Loss

The Fear and Greed Index rose today from 22/100 to 23/100. The increase was modest, with BTC staying below $20,000 for the eleventh consecutive session. Notably, the index rose while BTC ended the day in the red.

Neither the index nor BTC has been able to break out of the recent ranges, as the Fed fears it will continue to introduce economic uncertainty.

For the bulls, the index will need to continue to avoid below 20/100 to support the change in sentiment. However, a dip below 20/100 indicates BTC sliding below $18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC is down 0.16% at $1,303 and a mixed start to the day saw BTC surge to an early high of $1,9361 before dropping to $1,9293.

BTCUSD 191022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to break above the $19,381 pivot to target the first major resistance (R1) of $19,662 and Tuesday’s high of $19,709. A move of BTC through Tuesday’s high of $19,709 would indicate a bullish session. However, the FOMC members’ rhetoric should be crypto-friendly to support the hack.

In the event of an extended rally, the second major resistance level (R2) at $19,990 and $20,000 is likely to come into play. The third major resistance level (R3) is at $20,599.

Failure to breach the pivot leaves the first major support level (S1) at $1,053 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid below $18,500, and the second major support level (S2) at $18,772 should define the downside.

The third major support level (S3) is $18,163.

BTCUSD 191022 hourly chart

Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, Bitcoin is below its 50-day moving average, currently at $19,346.

The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day moving average, with the 100-day moving average pulling back from the 200-day moving average to provide bearish signals.

BTC needs to break above the 50-day EMA and the 100-day EMA ($19,399) to target the 200-day moving average ($19,618) and R1 ($19,662). However, if one does not break above the 50-day EMA ($19,346), then S1 ($19053) will be visible.

BTCUSD 191022 4-hour chart

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