A retracement to $0.410 to the $0.420 target

the main ideas:

  • On Monday, Cardano (ADA) ended the day unchanged with a loss of 6.67% in October.
  • Investor concerns ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy decision and press conference, left the ADA unchanged during the session.
  • Technical indicators remain bullish, with ADA holding above the 200-day moving average to make $0.450 visible.

On Monday, the ADA ended unchanged. After losing 3.33% on Sunday, ADA ended the month 6.67% lower at $0.406. Notably, the monthly loss in October was the twelfth loss in fourteen months.

A mixed morning saw ADA drop to an early low of $0.398. Avoiding the first major support level (S1) at $0.396, ADA rose to a late-morning high at $0.416. However, failing to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.419, ADA fell back below $0.400 before ending the day at $0.406.

The Fed’s concerns resurfaced ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday to leave the ADA and the broader market behind.

Network updates cannot compensate for investor turmoil

Monday’s session was quiet, with no network updates to provide ADA price support. With investors looking for a large influx of new projects into the Cardano ecosystem, Input Output HK’s latest development update has been a disappointment.

In recent months, price action, especially after the Vasil Hard Fork update, reflects investor sentiment towards lower project numbers.

However, there was talk of an influx of new projects in late 2022 and early 2023. These projects will have to be realized. After the Vasil Hard fork, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson spoke of hundreds of projects considering the Cardano Network after the Hard Grid major split.

ADA price action

This morning, the ADA is unchanged at $0.406. A mixed start to the day saw ADA drop to an early low of $0.404 before climbing to a high of $0.410.

ADAUSD 011122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to break the $0.407 pivot to target the first major resistance (R1) at $0.415 and Monday’s high at $0.416. The movement during the morning high at $0.410 may signal a possible breakout session. But the ADA will also need support from the broader market for a bullish session.

If the rally continues, the second major resistance level (R2) is likely to play at $0.425. The third major resistance level (R3) is located at $0.443.

Failure to move through the pivot leaves the first major support level (S1) at $0.397. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid below $0.390 and another major support level at $0.389. The third major support level (S3) is located at $0.371.

ADAUSD 011122 hourly chart

This morning, the exponential moving averages and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below) both sent a bullish signal.

The ADA was above 200 days, and is currently at $0.400. The 50-day EMA closed at the 200-day moving average, as the 100-day moving average fell to the 200-day moving average, giving bullish signals.

A wait above the 200-day EMA ($0.400) will support a decline at R1 ($0.415). However, a drop across the 200-day EMA ($0.400) should bring the S1 ($0.397) and 50-day ($0.396) into sight. The 100-day moving average is $0.391.

ADAUSD 011122 4-Hour Chart

Bounce to $0.410 to target $0.420 – Coinphony [SV]

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