Bitcoin’s ongoing price trajectory may share this similarity with the 2018 BTC cycle

next Bitcoin [BTC] It recently rebounded above $21,000, and it was not inconceivable that investors could breathe a sigh of relief. However, the relief may only last for a short time. This claim was because the signal on the series appears to be related to the downward slope of the past.

over here Bitcoin Price Prediction from AMBCrypto [BTC] For the year 2023-2024

According to CryptoQuant Analyst, Chartoday, Bitcoin . has reacted similar Over a period of one week and one month for the 2018 surrender. The analyst justified his claim by referring to the unused transaction exit (UTXO). The analyst noted that the UXTO case broke the 1-month and 1-week ranges. As of 2018, Bitcoin has surrendered to $6000.

Source: CryptoQuant

on me evaluation Price realized by Bitcoin per UXTO above, CryptoQuant revealed that the behavior of holding the recent lifetime distribution contrasts with that of long-term believers. Depending on the trend, the current age groups have challenged changing their active range. In turn, these servants stunted growth. Because of this behavior, BTC runs the risk of falling into bearish desires.

Untie the chances

One aspect of Bitcoin’s on-chain data that appears to be inconsistent with the decision was stock-to-flow skew. According to Glassnode, the deviation of BTC stock to flow was 0.189 at the time of publication. Since the value was not close to 1 or greater than that, it was assumed that BTC was undervalued. Therefore, the chances of surrendering more in this case were slim.

Inventory Data to Bitcoin Stream

Source: Glassnode

Anyway, were there other metrics that indicated a potential pullback from the charts? Signals from the network made profit and loss in line with stock-to-flow signals. Based on the minuteThe t-data, with which the network had profits and losses of 271,000, showed that overall market sentiment was primarily positive.

Moreover, this case revealed the occurrence of more capital inflows. Despite the hikes, investors may need to be careful. This was because higher realized profit or loss peaks could signal a move to a put option. It could be worse if demand drops and short-term investors start actively taking profits.

Bitcoin profit and loss

Source: feeling

If demand shrinks and UXTO stays in the same state, BTC may succumb to a bearish divergence.

Will BTC give up?

While the signals cannot be ignored, it does not appear that Bitcoin was ready to help materialize the bearish momentum. At press time, the daily chart revealed that the short-term exponential moving averages (EMA) were in a losing battle for relevance.

Judging by the indicators from the chart, the 20 EMA (blue) and the 50 EMA (yellow) were almost in the same place. Despite the bitcoin price rallying above these levels, the current situation is that the king coin was at risk of a reversal or consolidation between $20,000 and $21,000.

Bitcoin price action

Source: TradingView

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