Bear markets always look like long, drawn out trades, but a sharp downtrend only lasts for a year or so.
The cryptocurrency industry reached an all-time high of just over $3 trillion in market cap in November 2021. Almost a year later, on November 22, it reached a cycle low of $820 billion, marking a decrease of 73%. %.
In its latest “Ahead of the Curve” report, Arcane Research notes that this Bears cycle now matches the 2014 and 2018 cycles in terms of length.
“The Bitcoin bear market has now gone on for similar lengths to the 2014-15 and 2018 bear markets.”
Great insights from @tweetBefore the curve report:
“The Bitcoin bear market has now gone on for similar lengths to the 2014-15 and 2018 bear markets.” pic.twitter.com/I61RG1tB70
– Jaran Millerud (JMellerud) November 30, 2022
But in the previous cycle, markets fell 87% from $830 billion in January 2018 to just over $100 billion in market capitalization in December of that year. The size of this stream wasn’t that great despite the crash of Terra/Luna and FTX.
What followed the low cycle was a long period of slow consolidation and buildup, which we can see at the moment.
The report notes that the current Bitcoin market (not the total cryptocurrency cap) has seen 376 days from peak to trough. In 2018 that period was 364 days and in 2014 it lasted 407 days.
“So while the current dip time was the same as previous cycles, the depths are currently higher.”
The markets are up about 10% from their current lows last week. Returned about $80 billion to raise the total capital over $900 billion again.
Bitcoin leads the cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin moves halving cycles of 4 years.
The last global bottom for Bitcoin was in December 2018.
Tomorrow is December 2022, four years later. pic.twitter.com/EivaIJ772f
– Murad (MustStopMurad) November 30, 2022
FED Pivot is good for cryptocurrency
Other influences can also describe a market bottom and a change in trend. The US central bank’s shift to less stringent recovery measures could mean lower and lower interest rates next year. This would be good news for risky assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have all taken a beating this year.
The Fed is swinging. Language starts quietly and prepares the market. On schedule for Q1.
So we have:
Bitcoin is undervalued
– Completely obliterate the lever
Indications of policy change
The stage is ready. pic.twitter.com/gQTjSxMXYe
– Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) November 30, 2022
With all leverage eliminated from the cryptocurrency markets, only the hardcore hackers and those with complete conviction are left.
Bitcoin has reclaimed $17k this week, and Ethereum has crossed $1,300 again, so a long-term trend change may start. However, there is not likely to be a full bull market until later this year when the rules are settled and institutions return to the asset class.
The length of the bear market now matches the previous cycles, so is the trend reversal imminent? It first appeared on CryptoPotato.