Warning: The results of the following analysis are the author’s opinions only and should not be considered investment advice
- The market structure was strongly bearish
- Ethereum has been choppy above the demand zone
Ethereum [ETH] It posted losses of 12.5% since a high of $1,351 on December 14. The bulls struggled to defend the 12 hour order block near $1160, and this area has been a support since late November.
Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price forecast 2023-2024
A move below $1,150 could lead ETH to a quick drop to the $1,072 level. This marks the lowest levels of the range that Ethereum has been trading in since the first week of November. Technical indicators also reinforced the downside trend.
The bullish order block has been defended so far but the bears are still in control
The cyan box in which ETH was trading at the time of publication represents a 12-hour bullish order block. So far, the 12-hour trading session has not closed during this short. The four-hour chart showed that the momentum and selling pressure was in the hands of the bears.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral 50 level in recent days and retested it as resistance. Although it settled at 28.5, indicating oversold conditions, this does not mean that more losses cannot follow for Ethereum. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) was also well below -0.05, showing a large outflow of capital from the market.
Short sellers can wait for a move below $1,160 and retest the $1,160-$1,200 area to place sell orders targeting lows near $1,080. For the bullish bias to materialize, the ETH bulls need to pull the price above the mid-range mark at $1,211.
MVRV decreases when carriers experience downsizing again
The Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) (30 days) rose above the zero mark in early December. And it stayed higher for nearly two weeks, indicating that short-term holders were reaping a profit. However, the recent wave of selling has seen Ethereum decline at the upper level of the $1,350 range. Along with the price drop, MVRV also fell to show that stockholders are seeing their dividends melt away.
The average age of the coin (90 days) made weak attempts to establish an upward trend from mid-November to early December. In recent days, the average age of the coin has also decreased rapidly, which indicates an increase in the movement of ETH between addresses.