the main ideas:
- On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.84% to end the day at $16,447.
- Fed fears reignited a recession, sending the Nasdaq and Bitcoin into negative territory.
- The Fear & Greed Index held steady at 29/100, reflecting the support of investors at the current BTC price levels.
On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.84%. After losing 0.23% on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $16,447. Notably, bitcoin dropped below $17,000 for the third time since November 29 while avoiding below $16,000.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC surge to an early morning high of $16,825. When BTC broke below the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,859, BTC dropped to a late low of $16,261. BTC fell through key support levels before bouncing back through the third key support level (S3) at $16,380 to end the day at $16,447.
Recession fears and the Nasdaq index send Bitcoin into the red
On Monday, uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy weighed on investor confidence. The FMOC’s economic outlook and hawkish rhetoric from FOMC members in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s press conference drove riskier assets.
Recent comments and expectations have cast doubt on the Fed’s pivot bets, sending the Nasdaq to a fourth straight loss and BTC below $16,500 for the first time since November 30. .
On Monday, the Nasdaq was down 1.49%, and the S&P500 ended the day with a loss of 0.90%.
Today, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving the NASDAQ and crypto news to provide guidance. This morning, the NASDAQ mini index rose by 27.25 points, providing early support.
Fear & Greed Index is steady at 29/100 despite the BTC loss
Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 29/100, despite BTC dropping below $16,500. Easing concerns about Binance’s liquidity crunch continued to provide support, easing the effects of recession fears on investor sentiment.
While fears of a liquidity crunch provided support, recession fears are likely to test investor sentiment. With the crypto market tracking the NASDAQ index, the crypto market will offer some protection in the event of a strong NASDAQ sell-off.
Avoiding below 100/20 remains key in the short term. The bulls will need to target the November 6 rally before FTX collapses at 40/100 to support a run to $20,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price movement
At the time of writing, BTC is up 0.81% at $16,581, and a bullish start to the day has seen BTC rally from an early morning low of $16,413 to a high of $16,598.
BTC needs to avoid the $16,511 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,761 and Monday’s high at $16,825. A move through Monday’s high could signal a bullish session. However, the NASDAQ will need to support the breakout session.
In case the rally continues, the second major resistance level (R2) at $17,075 is likely to come into play. The third major resistance level (R3) is located at $17,639.
A fall through the pivot would trigger the first major support level (S1) at $16,197. Barring another risk-driven sell-off, BTC should avoid below $16,000 and the second major support level (S2) at $15,947. The third major support level (S3) is at $15,383.
An adverse crypto market event could take less than $16,000.
Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, Bitcoin sat below the 50-day moving average, currently at $16,974. After a bearish cross on Sunday, the 50-day SMA has pulled back from the 100-day SMA, with the 100-day SMA retracing from the 200-day SMA, providing bearish signals.
A move through R1 ($16,761) would be supported by a run from the 50-day moving average ($16,974) and R2 ($17,075). However, a failure to breach the 50-day EMA will put Bitcoin under pressure.