All five waves in ED collapse into only three waves each, which indicates trend exhaustion to a greater degree, which in this case is bearish. Also, wave 2 and wave 4 may overlap. Most EDs have a wedge shape as they fit into two converging lines. The subwaves of ED, which consist of three waves each, are corrective waves. In Figure 1 above, I have shown how the inner part of the ED can best explain price action since the August high and, if correct, how it can help predict future BTC price movement (red dotted arrows).
Thus, the bears received their first warning with last week’s trading above $18,185, but the bulls failed to follow through and could not even close the cryptocurrency price above that level that day. Unless the bulls can bring BTC price back to the December high ($18,344) followed by a break above the August high of $21,475, without entering below the November lows, the price action overlapping indicates a closing diagonal formation, with Ideal target $10100 +/- 500.
Thus, BTC may continue targeting the $10k region, as reported a month ago (see here). In addition, the ED scenario helps explain the erratic nature of the three waves of price action since August and why accurate and reliable forecasts have been more difficult than usual.