with bitcoin [BTC] Reversing 2019’s Price Drop, 2023 Will See Panic-Driven Investors

  • BTC ends 2022 in the $16,500 price range.
  • On-chain data points to a further decline in the value of BTC in the coming year.

Despite closing the 2022 trading year in the $16,500 price range, on-chain data indicated that bitcoin [BTC] The price will see a further decline in 2023.

0.45x cut if BTC reaches Ethereum’s market cap?

CryptoQuant Analyst oinonen_t It found that BTC’s current distribution of unused transactions (UTXO) showed similar characteristics to the 2019 bear market, which Delphi Digital Successfully used to predict market capitulation.

In January 2019, Delphi Digital analyzed the age trend of BTC’s UTXO and compared its progress over previous cycles.

The analytics company analyzed the percentage of unspent and untouched bitcoins for different periods of time. This ranged from less than three months to more than five years.

It found that as the number of coins that have not been touched for at least one year increases, the number of UTXOs that have not been touched for at least one year has also decreased.

This led the research firm to conclude that long-term BTC holders have begun accumulating. Then it was similar to what happened in late 2014. Then he predicted lower prices in the first quarter of 2019.

What do bitcoin analysts say?

By comparing BTC’s current UTXO with early 2019, oinonen_t found,

“While the 1M-3M (green) retail wave reflects positive sentiment, the longer timeframes such as the 3Y-5Y (red) clearly show reduced risk. The 3M-6M (orange) short-term traders are still rallying after Significant losses. However, the 2Y-3Y institutional level (dark blue) shows signs of accumulation.”

Source: CryptoQuant

Moreover, another CryptoQuant analyst predicts a further decline in the price of BTC in 2023, Qudosivar, witnessed a gradual movement of BTC’s Netflow into positive territory. This means that sellers have saturated the Bitcoin market. Gudosivar said,

“This means fewer buyers and more sellers. It is likely that, despite our positivity, we will see a local peak and then an increase in selling pressure in the futures market, which could lead to a continuation of the downtrend and a loss of current support.”

Source: CryptoQuant

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Giving a hint of hope, CryptoQuant analyst Nino assessed the dominance of BTC’s Spent Output Age Band (SOAB) on the daily chart and found that BTC’s long-term outlook has shifted from bearish to neutral.

According to Nino, the daily exchange flow of BTC UTXO that is less than one to two years old has increased by more than 20%. This indicates an increase in trading activity for BTC within this age group.

Source: CryptoQuant

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