the main ideas:
- The end of 2022 was bearish, with BTC dropping 0.32% to end the year at $16,564.
- There were no economic indicators or crypto events to influence, leaving a bearish trend towards the Fed and fears of a recession to peg Bitcoin again.
- The Fear and Greed Index increased from 25/100 to 26/100, indicating an exit from the fear zone at the beginning of the year.
On Saturday, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 0.32%. After a 0.24% drop on Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,564. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the 11th consecutive session while avoiding below $16,500.
After a range-bound morning, bitcoin rose to an early afternoon high of $16,664 before retreating. Below the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,737, BTC fell to a late low of $16,507. However, avoiding the first major support level (S1) at $16,428, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,564.
Cryptocurrency market headwinds are leaving Bitcoin in a bearish mood
There were no economic indicators or crypto events on Saturday, leaving Bitcoin for another range-limited session.
BTC is down 64.15% in 2022 compared to a 33.5% drop in the Nasdaq, with the crash of Terra Labs and FTX separating the two. However, cryptocurrency headwinds have been piling up throughout the year, with regulatory and contagion risks adding to the bearish sentiment.
Today, investors will be looking for a fresh start. However, Fed concerns are likely to persist, as do recession fears and uncertainty about the regulatory landscape. Ripple’s victory in the SEC v. Ripple case should ease some of the market’s concerns, though investors may have to wait for crucial court decisions that could melt the crypto winter.
With the global financial markets also closed tomorrow, volumes are likely to be on a downward trend. However, investors should continue to monitor cryptocurrency news feeds for events that could move the dial. Contagion from Crypto Winter and the FTX meltdown remain focal points.
The Fear and Greed Index leaves the area of extreme fear
Today the BTC Fear & Greed Index rose from 25/100 to 26/100. Significantly, the index has crept out of the high fear zone, indicating a positive start to 2023.
While the index exited the area of extreme fear, the current level reflects investors’ uncertainty about what lies ahead. The Nasdaq had its worst year since the global financial crisis, with an uncertain outlook for 2023. Uncertainty will continue to guide the index back from the transition phase to neutral territory in the short term.
Avoiding below 100/20 remains key in the short term. The bulls will need to target the November 6 rally before FTX collapses at 40/100 to support BTC’s run to $20,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price movement
At the time of writing, BTC is up 0.04% at $16,571, and a range-bound start to the day saw BTC drop to an early low of $16,541 before surging to a high of $16,571.
BTC needs to break the $16,578 level to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,650 and Saturday’s high at $16,664. A return to $16,650 indicates a bullish session. However, crypto news feeds must be crypto-friendly to support a hack session.
In case of an extended rally, BTC is likely to test the second major resistance level (R2) at $16,735 and the resistance at $16,750. The third major resistance level (R3) is at $16,892.
Failure to move through the pivot leaves the first major support level (S1) $16,493 in play. Barring a risk-driven crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid below $16,300, and the second major support level (S2) at $16,421 should be the lower bound. The third major support level (S3) is at $16,264.
An adverse crypto market event could take less than $16,000.
Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Bitcoin sat below the 50-day moving average, currently at $16,691, and the 50-day moving average has bounced off the 100-day moving average, with the 100-day moving back from the 200-day moving average, giving signals. bearish.
A breakout of R1 ($16,650) and the 50-day EMA ($16,691) would support a run at R2 ($16,735) and the 100-day EMA ($16,790). A break of the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, if the 50-day moving average ($16,691) is not broken, then key support levels will emerge.