Finally out of the woods? For indicator: BTCUSD by akikostas – Technische Analyze – 2023-01-02 07:49:56

A while ago I wrote about why SPX It was not clear.

Today I will interrupt myself, as a common contradictory person you will discover in the wild.

The above graph is BTC The charts were rolled back in 2015. At that time very few people knew about it. So with this brief idea I will try to enter into the mind of the merchant of the past, our ancestor.

First of all, the elephant in the room: we missed an important trend line. The price in the 2014 sell missed the trend line and tested the downtrend on it.

glimpse

Now to 200EMA. Since the weekly is too long for the chart history, we switch to 3D.
What we’re seeing is that for the first time ever we’re under it. And there was a lot of lying at this point. It continued to decline from 2014.

glimpse

Let’s see some bounces.

glimpse

The low of November 2011 is a good starting point for analysis. Most ticks start around that time. We’re under the .786 tag, by the looks of it. We must reach the 0.618 mark if we are looking for a bottom.

What will the trader think next? Maybe it’s the same as they think now.

glimpse

So what did the price do next with all the negativity coming in?

glimpse

Just this boring fuse… anti-climactic I know.

Finally, look at this macro chart. Watch carefully RSI and MESA Random .

glimpse

completely identical.

Cues from the story? failed one EMA It’s not the end of the world. The offending “logistical growth” curve, whatever that may mean, is not significant. As the charts grow by weeks, then months, then years, we must analyze them over longer and longer periods of time. For example, the 200EMA on the 1W timeframe may not be important now. We must move to 2W.

One last note: I tried to create a custom one RSI , which may need improvement. Basically what I did was add an ATR band around it (inspired by Keltner channel indicator – which doesn’t work if we put it on top of another indicator). ATR ranges are EMA based and I find it more useful/accurate than Bollinger Bands .

I will briefly explain one last thought.

glimpse

This chart above shows us when on the 2W chart we have a “surrender”. it’s a RSI It breaks through the lower ATR band. Below is a close-up view:

glimpse

Already in 2015 we had a capitulation on the 2W chart, and now we have both the 2W chart and the 1M chart.

glimpse

And an extra outline for today:

glimpse

This is what it looks like rising matte… wedge one style cake flag With the stochastic giving us a big thumbs up.
Again, just like in 2015.

glimpse

bitcoin She has grown up, and now she is 14 years old. And they act in adulthood, in traits that last longer, more clearly and decisively. If we want to treat her like an adult, we must first grow ourselves.
Another moral of the story: One way traders fail is by expecting more falls that have already occurred. When they expect more growth than the growth has occurred. It’s the fear of missing out, only in reverse. Many, including myself, write about why bitcoin It will go down to 10k or less. It’s the same thing we had at the time bitcoin It got to 70k and we were 100k sure. Once again, it’s time to grow up, myself included.

note. Maybe we’re in 2015 after all… I’m a contradictory person, don’t judge me.

This is sacred ground.
Father Gregory

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