BTC Fear & Greed Indicator is sending a bearish signal ahead of the US open

the main ideas:

  • It was a bullish Monday, as bitcoin rose 0.28% to end the day at $16,690.
  • Chats from the World Economic Forum provided support, while volumes remained subdued as US markets closed for the holiday.
  • The Fear and Greed Index fell from 27/100 to 26/100, indicating a mixed session ahead.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) was up 0.28%. After gaining 0.48% on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $16,690. It should be noted that BTC avoided below $16,500 for the third consecutive session as it continued to climb below $17,000.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC drop to an early morning low of $16,584. Avoiding the first major support level (S1) at $16,559, BTC rose to a late high of $16,803. BTC broke through the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,686 and briefly through the second major resistance level (R2) at $16,728 before retreating to end the day at $16,690.

$17,000 remained elusive in a choppy start to the week

On Monday, US markets were closed for holidays, causing trading volumes to drop. With no NASDAQ index to guide investors, cryptocurrency news provided support in the afternoon session.

Crypto-related commentary from the World Economic Forum (WEF) gave investors a different perspective on the crypto market crash in 2022.

In particular, the World Economic Forum said,

“Crypto and blockchain will continue to be an integral part of the modern financial toolkit.”

WEF also compared cryptography to a dot-com bubble, saying,

“Just as it took the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s to hand the future of the Internet over to more sustainable companies, business models, and use cases, perhaps 2022 marks the handing of cryptographic technology and blockchain infrastructure into steadier hands.”

Today, manufacturing data from China and the US will influence the chat of all FOMC members. As US markets reopen today, cryptocurrency and NASDAQ news will likely guide investors in the afternoon session. However, the hawkish FOMC members’ talk may test buyers’ appetites. The NASDAQ mini index is down 15 points this morning.

Nasdaq – BTCUSD 030123 daily chart

Fear and greed indicators are dropping despite Bitcoin’s bullish session

The BTC Fear & Greed Index is down today from 27/100 to 26/100.

In particular, the pointer avoided returning to the zone of extreme fear. However, BTC’s bullish session failed to prevent a fall, indicating investors’ uncertainty about the near-term outlook. BTC continues to remain below $17,000, with the cryptocurrency market cap not returning to $800 billion.

Cryptocurrency headwinds have once again stabilized Bitcoin and the broader market, preventing the index from returning to neutral territory.

Avoiding below 100/20 remains key in the short term. The bulls will need to target the November 6 rally before FTX collapses at 40/100 to support BTC’s run to $20,000.

Fear and greed 030123

Bitcoin (BTC) price movement

At the time of writing, BTC is up 0.20% at $16,724, and a range-bound start to the day saw BTC drop to an early low of $16,671 before surging to a high of $16,724.

BTCUSD daily chart 030123

Technical indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $16,692 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,801 and Monday’s high at $16,803. A return to $16,800 indicates a bullish session. However, crypto news feeds must be crypto-friendly to support a hack session.

In case of an extended rally, BTC is likely to test the second major resistance level (R2) at $16,911 and the resistance at $17,000, and the third major resistance level (R3) at $17,130.

A fall through the pivot would put the first major support level (S1) at USD 16,582. Barring a risk-driven crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid below $16,500 and the second major support level (S2) at $16,474. The third major support level (S3) is at $16,254.

An adverse crypto market event could take less than $16,000.

BTCUSD 030123 hourly chart

Looking at the exponential moving average and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Bitcoin sat below the 100-day moving average, currently at $16,765. The 50-day moving average fell below the 100-day moving average, while the 100-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, giving mixed signals.

A breakout of the 100-day moving average ($16.765) and R1 ($16.801) would support a run at R2 ($16.911) and the 200-day moving average ($16.938). A break of the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, a decline across the 50-day moving average ($16,686) would show key support levels.

BTCUSD 030123 4-hour chart

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