bitcoin [BTC]: What to expect after a 23% rise in 2023

  • The recent surge in the price of BTC has left many BTC holders with unrealized gains.
  • aSOPR’s attempt to retest the 1.0 value indicated an uptrend in the current market.

bitcoin [BTC] It started the year with a strong 23.3% rally, which has led to a wide range of investors and miners seeing their net holdings and operations return to profitability.

Leading on-chain data provider Glassnode, in a new report titled Is Bitcoin Back?And He evaluated some on-chain metrics to determine the meaning behind last week’s recent price hike and the factors behind it.

Read bitcoins [BTC] Price forecast 2023-24

Glassnode considered BTC’s 200-day simple moving average (200D-SMA) to confirm whether the market sentiment was bullish or bearish over the past week.

What do the measurements reveal?

The 200-day SMA is often used as a benchmark for determining macroeconomic trends for all types of crypto assets. By comparing the price of bitcoin to the 200-day simple moving average, investors and traders can determine whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend.

With the price rally in the past week, Glassnode found that BTC price has surpassed the psychological level of $19,500. She also added that BTC markets are showing a consistent pattern of cycles, with the current cycle trading below the 200D-SMA for 381 days, just short of the 386-day bear market in 2018-2019.

In case BTC price breaks above the 200D SMA, one can expect the price to rally as it did in 2019 and 2021.

Source: Glassnode

Glassnode also noted that the recent price surge has caused the value of BTC to exceed its realized value, indicating that the average BTC holder has made a net unrealized gain in the past week. For context, the current bear market has lasted 179 days short of price realization, making it the second longest bear market in the last four cycles.

Source: Glassnode

aSOPR for bitcoin proposes…

A look at the King coin’s Adjusted Output Profit Spent Ratio (aSOPR) revealed that the metric would have retested a value of 1.0 from below. BTC’s ASOPR is a metric used to measure the profitability of BTC transactions by comparing the revenue generated by a transaction to the cost of creating it.

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According to Glassnode:

“A SOPR breaking higher, preferably a successful retest of 1.0, often indicates a meaningful shift in the system, where gains are made and demand flows sufficient to accommodate them.”

When the aSOPR 30-day moving average exceeds 1.0, trades become more profitable on a larger scale, which usually indicates a strong market in general.

Source: Glassnode

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