Invalid Diagonal End – Trace one push higher
In my last update, I said, “The price development has overlapped since the peak in August, for example the most recent drop above $18,185, but there has been no daily close above it. As such, it becomes more difficult to interpret, but it appears to be a diagonal end (ED) 5y The wave is forming. Unless the bulls can recover BTC price back above the December high ($18,344) followed by a break above the August high of $21,475.. “
The bulls did what they had to do, and now the most likely path forward is an extended push higher. Extended means 3Research and development and 5y Wave targets exceed typical levels of 1,618×1 and 2,000×1 respectively. Here we’re looking at 2,618 x 1 and 3,000 x 1 respectively instead. See the blue target area boxes in Figure 1. In the shorter term, the W-4 orange of the W-iii gray should be low, right in the ideal orange target area, and the W-5 orange with an ideal price of $22,750-24,000 is in the works before W- – iv grey, etc.
The final and ideal target is $27-28,000 for the current rally. At the $28k level, Bitcoin can tell if it’s all about an extended irregular flat 4 wave (black), which explains the 3-wave regression from the August highs to the November lows very well. Or if it’s just wave -1/a.
The former means that the $10K level will be visited for the entire W-5, while the latter indicates that BTC will fall back to $20-18.5K before rising again for the W-3/c. We’ll address this issue when we get to $27-28k. For now, as long as $18,344 remains, with a first warning of bulls below $19,200, we can look for higher prices.